Many people now agree that the risk process should include opportunities, which are
defined as “uncertain events or conditions which, if they occur, have a positive effect on
achievement of objectives.” This is reflected in professional standards, guidelines,
textbooks, and the processes and practice of many leading organisations. Despite this
acceptance of the theory, people still seem to have trouble identifying opportunities. An
earlier Risk Doctor Briefing addressed this difficulty in principle, suggesting four routes to
finding upside risks. This briefing offers a specific technique that might be useful.
許多人現在同意, 風險流程中應該包括機會, 所謂機會是「不確定的事件或情況, 如果他們發生, 對目標的達成有正面的影響。」此一看法反映在各種專業標準、指南、教科書、以及 先進組織的流程與實務上，這雖然在理論上是被接受的，但人們在機會的辨識上仍然 有困難。早期的一篇風險大夫短評曾指出其主要的困難點，並建議了找出正面風險的 四條途徑，本篇短評則提供可能有用的特定技術。
Engineers and project teams have for a long time used a technique known as Fault Tree
Analysis (FTA) or Failure Modes & Effects Analysis (FMEA) in order to expose ways in
which technical solutions or projects might fail. This approach is very useful in finding
negative risks, or threats. Is it possible to use similar thinking to discover opportunities?
Is there an analogous process or technique that works for positive risks?
工程師與專案團隊長期以來都有使用一種稱為失效樹分析(FTA)或失效模式分析( FMEA)的技術，用以顯示技術方案或專案失敗的途徑，這種方法在發現負面風險或威 脅上十分有用，那是否有可能用相同思維發現機會呢？是否有類比的流程或技術對正 面風險是有效的呢？
FTA/FMEA starts with a failure mode or fault condition, then works backwards to explore
and identify ways in which this might arise. This can be done either informally by asking
how and why the outcome could happen, or in a structured way using formal techniques.
FTA/FMEA是從一個失敗狀態或失效情況開始，然後以倒推的方式來探討及辨識 這種狀態可能發生的途徑，這可以經由非正式的詢問此一結果如何及為何會產生，或 以一個結構性的正式技術來達成。
The same approach can be used to find opportunities, though perhaps we should call it
Benefit Tree Analysis (BTA) or Success Modes & Effects Analysis (SMEA)? The starting
point is to identify a range of positive end conditions, such as saving time, reducing cost,
improving performance, enhancing reputation etc. Then we can take each of these in
turn and work backwards, asking how and why it might arise. What helpful uncertainties
might lead us to this good result? Can we do anything to achieve our objective faster,
smarter or cheaper?
同樣的方法可以用來發現機會，雖然我們也許應該改稱之為利益樹分析或成功模 式分析？其起始點是在某一範圍內辨識出正面的最終狀況、例如時間之節省、成本之 降低、績效之改善、以及聲望之提昇等。然後我們可以採取倒推方式逐個詢問其如何 及為何發生，是哪些有益的不確定性可能使我們獲致此一好的結果？我們可以採取某 些行動使我們更快速、更聰明、或更便宜地達成目標嗎？
It is likely that some of these routes leading to the positive outcome can be implemented
immediately, in which case we have discovered a definite improvement option. This
should be costed, planned, resourced, and done.
某些可獲致正面結果的途徑是有可能可以立刻採行的，在這些案例中我們發現明確的改善方案，就應該計算其成本、規劃之、配置資源、以及執行之。
Other things may be uncertain: “If this happened or if we could do that, then it would help
because…” These helpful uncertainties are in fact opportunities. They should be fed into
the risk process to be assessed, then appropriate responses can be developed and
implemented etc.
其他則可能是不確定的：「若這個發生或我們可以這樣做，則將有所助益，因為…」，這些有所助益的不確定性事實上即機會，他們應該併入風險流程中被評估，然後發展出適當的回應行動並執行之。
The concept of transforming threat-focused risk identification techniques such as
FTA/FMEA into opportunity-seeking equivalents can of course be applied elsewhere. We
might also adapt similar techniques such as Root-Cause-Analysis or Ishikawa/fishbone
diagrams. The key is to treat opportunities just the same as threats: they are both types
of risk, except that one has a positive impact and other is negative. To find opportunities
we first need to allow ourselves to think positively, be creative, imagine good things.
Then we can use structured techniques to identify those uncertain events or conditions
which might happen and which, if they did occur, would be helpful.
將專注於威脅風險辨識技術如FTA/FMEA轉換成為等同於尋找機會的概念，當然可以應用於其他地方，我們也可以調整類似技術如根源分析或因果/魚骨圖，其關鍵在於將處理機會當作處理威脅一樣：他們都是風險的類型，只不過一個有正面的影響另一個則是負面的。為了發現機會我們首先要能正面思考、有創意、及想像好的事情，然後我們可以使用結構性的技術來辨識出那些可能發生且一旦發生會有所助益的不確定事件或情況。
There are many opportunities out there waiting to be found. Simple modifications to our
familiar threat-based techniques will help us find these upside risks and gain the
additional benefits they offer.
有很多的機會等著被發現，只需修正我們所熟悉的以威脅為基礎的技術，將有助於我們發現好的風險並得到其所產生的額外效益。
編者按: Dr. David Willson預於4月17日來台主講，請踴躍報名
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