Human beings are a complex mixture of rational and irrational, a subtle combination of head, heart and guts. But when it comes to making decisions and managing risk, we seem to favour thinking over feeling. We believe that decision-making and risk management should be structured processes, dispassionately considering options, objectively weighing the odds, and reaching a result that can be fully justified and defended. Yet excluding the non-rational can deny us an important source of information, particularly when dealing with uncertainty. Is there a place for intuition in decision-making or risk management?

What is intuition? It describes “instinctive knowing without use of rational processes”, a sense or feeling about something, that can’t be easily explained or justified. Sometimes we “just know it seems right”, or sometimes we consider “it feels wrong somehow”. Should these feelings be dismissed automatically as unreliable and irrelevant, or is there some way we can use them?

Intuition is often the result of extensive experience, the product of embedded wisdom, and the voice of distilled expertise. Someone who has worked in an area for a long time will probably have a deep understanding of the issues and complexities involved, and may form a judgement without being able to explain precisely how they got there. This rich source of experience should not be rejected lightly, but should be used to improve decision-making and risk management. But how? Should we abandon all structured processes and instead just ask experts to tell us what they feel is right?

The right solution is not “either/or” but “both/and”. We should combine intuition with a more rational approach, to get the best of both worlds. This involves the following:

• Listen. Use intuition to validate the outputs of our decision-making and risk processes.
• Learn. Seek to capture the embedded knowledge of experts, and make it available for others to use.
• Grow. Develop our own intuitive skills through practice and feedback.

There is however a potential danger in using intuition as part of risk or decision-making processes. Because it is based on previous experience, intuition is highly specific to the individual, and it may therefore be biased and unrepresentative. It depends on the particular experience of each person. Consequently we need to be aware of the underlying basis for intuitive judgements. We should aim to turn tacit or hidden knowledge into explicit or open knowledge wherever possible. This enables intuitive assessments to be validated, challenged where necessary, and used with confidence.

So there’s nothing wrong with intuition, as long as it’s used wisely. It can form a valuable part of the risk management process, helping us to find hidden risks and ensuring that our assessments and planned responses make sense. Intuition is also an important contributor to effective decision-making, tapping into reserves of previous experience and wisdom, and ensuring that the outcome is robust.

While it would be unwise to rely exclusively on intuition when making decisions or assessing risk, it would be equally imprudent to ignore this rich source of experience.

人類是理性與非理性的複雜混合體，是大腦、心靈、以及勇氣的精巧組合。但在制訂決策與管理風險的時候，我們似乎是較偏好思考而非感覺。我們相信制訂決策與管理風險應該是個結構化的程序、非情緒化地考量各種選項、客觀地權衡成功的機會、以及獲致一個可以完全判定及辯證的結果。然而除此以外，非理性對我們的否定也是一個資訊的來源，特別是在面對不確定時。在決策制訂或風險管理中有直覺存在的一席之地嗎？

什麼是直覺？它描述「不經過理性的程序即有的本能上的瞭解」、對於某些事物的領會或感覺，是難以解釋或判定的，有時候「我們就是知道那似乎是對的」、也有時候我們認為「那感覺上就是錯的」，這些感覺是應該因為不可靠且不相干而自動被忽略嗎？還是我們有某些方法可以運用它？

直覺通常是豐富經驗的結果、是深藏於記憶中的智慧的產品、以及精煉專業下的聲音，某人在某個領域工作了一段很長的時間後，可能會對牽涉其中的議題與複雜性有深刻的瞭解，而可以在不需要詳細解釋如何獲致的情況下形成判斷。這種豐富的經驗資源不應該輕易被拒絕，而應該用以改善決策的制訂與風險的管理。然而該如何做呢？難道我們應該放棄所有結構化的過程而只請教專家他們覺得什麼是對的嗎？

正確的解決方式不是「二者擇一」而是「兩者皆要」，我們應該結合直覺與更結構化的途徑，以取得兩個世界中的最佳值。這包括以下各項：

• 傾聽 使用直覺來確認我們的決策及風險過程的產出是有效的。
• 學習 尋求方法以捕捉專家深植記憶中的知識，使得它能為他人所用。
• 成長 經由練習與回饋發展我們自己的直覺技巧。

然而使用直覺做為決策制訂與風險管理的一部份是有潛在的危險的，因為它是基於過去的經驗。直覺高度專屬於個人，它因此可能有所偏差或不具代表性，它依賴的是每個人的特定經驗，因此我們必須瞭解直覺判斷的基本前提。我們應將目標設定於把無法明言或隱藏的知識儘可能轉化為可明言或開放的知識，這使得直覺評估能夠被確認為有效、有必要時可被質疑、以及有信心地被使用。

所以直覺沒有什麼不對，只要你能夠聰明地使用它。它可以形成風險管理程序中有價值的部分、幫助我們找出隱藏的風險、並且確保我們的評估以及規劃的回應是合理的。直覺對有效決策也是重要的貢獻者，開發過去所保留下來的經驗與智慧，並且確保結果是穩健的。

在制訂決策或評估風險時只依賴直覺固然是不聰明的，然而忽略這項豐富的經驗資源也是同等的草率。